A plant using UV disinfection has recently started failing E. coli limits even though the UV lamps are on, alarms are clear, and UV intensity readings are similar to last month. Operators notice secondary effluent turbidity has increased from 2 NTU to 12 NTU, and final effluent TSS has increased from 8 mg/L to 28 mg/L. Which explanation best describes why disinfection performance is dropping and what the operator should focus on first?